May 10, 2017 – Who’s running the country? After 100 days of the new Trump Administration, I am still not sure how much Trump is in control of the Executive Office. I am more confident of the people he surrounded himself with but this latest dismissal of FBI Director James Comey who was leading a criminal investigation into whether Trump’s advisers worked with the Russians to change the outcome of the election does not sit well with me nor with many sensible political pundits. For many of us who supported Trump, the jury is still out whether he is a genius or a madman. After all he said, “I know how to do this” so we believed him and put our trust in him that he is not the same run of the mill politician. Amidst a multitude of domestic and international problems, the panic selling in the stock market, a 10% to 30% correction which I expected to start happening a month ago has not yet happened. But believe me folks, it will happen perhaps unexpectedly and sooner than you think. The market may lose 20% in just the first ten days of a downward trend that may not necessarily be a bear market but a correction. We all know stocks are overvalued and many smart investors are just waiting for the next bad news to push the sell button. And there are lots of bad news here and abroad. The Taliban is taking over large portions of Afghanistan again and our country is sending thousands of additional troops to at least get the other side to the table for negotiation. Kim Jong Un, the North Korean dictator does not seem afraid to pull the trigger and there is a real possibility that the unthinkable may happen. The North Korean problem is more complicated than most people think. Maybe if we get rid of Kim and somehow convinced (or bribed) NK to become more democratic, be more like SK, join the family of nations everything would be fine and dandy in the world, right? Wrong! China does not want that to happen. The DMZ (Korean Demilitarized Zone) will continue to exist as long as China is in existence just like the Berlin Wall continued standing until the USSR was no more. There is no light at the end of the tunnel with this North Korean problem. To make matters worse, although Iran seems to be under the radar at present, the Iranian nuclear problem will start brewing again soon. Pres. Obama made a bad deal that will come to bite us real soon after Iran has freed all its assets from our control.
5-10% Stock Market Correction
March 24, 2017 – Folks, the long awaited stock market correction is here at last. We can expect a 5 to 10% decline from the Dow’s most recent high of 21,000. As we’ve mentioned before, any bad new can trigger the correction. It appears that the most recent not so good news that are making investors and the smart money edgy is the realization that not all Trump’s investor friendly proposals will sail smoothly through congress. TrumpCare which is supposed to be the replacement for ObamaCare was thrown out due to lack of support. This the first indication Trump’s that investor-friendly promises such as reduction of corporate and personal taxes may not see the light of day. The good news though, is that this consumer driven economy is still going strong. Transportation sector is stronger than ever which is an indication that a recession is not looming in the horizon yet. The bad news is that stock prices are really over priced that is why a correction is expected. For the average investor like you and me, we will be better off leaving your money alone until the next recession which will surely come. When will that happen, download my eBook, DOW to drop 80% Soon?
Folks, even though the Dow breached the resistance level of 20,000 a couple of weeks ago, I smell a 5% to 15% stock market correction knocking on our doors. In fact it is overdue. The last correction happened over a year ago. It was triggered by relatively benign news, i.e. there was an oil glut and the price per barrel dropped to below $30 in January 2016. The regular Jos Schmo would ask, “Why was that bad?”
Economists and political pundits think that the reason for the record surge in stocks is due to Pres. Trump’s pro business posture, i.e. lower taxes and less regulations. Doing away with burdensome regulations should be relatively easy to do. The administration does not even have to issue executive orders. The government can just stop enforcement. Lowering taxes is harder to accomplish. We are looking for the correction to happen around April or May.
Trump goes to war with the mainstream media but the stock market keeps going up. Genius or mad man? A presidency in disarray or a fine tuned machine? The smart money is betting that Trump is a genius and the administration is a fined tuned machine. Smart money keeps pouring into the stock market. Should you be a contrarian and bail out now that all the major indices have reached all time high? The answer is are you in for the long term or do you want to gamble a little bit. If you do, get out of the market now and put all your money in a money market fund (stable fund) because I think a correction is overdue. Wait until there is a major correction of 10 to 20%, then jump back in. Remember that if you are out of the market, you will die each day you hear the major indices reach record highs. If you adopt this strategy, sit back have a beer and watch TV until you hear the DOW is back down to 18,500. Then jump back in. Good luck. I’m not a gambler. I will stay put and ride the tide if my portfolio loses 10 to 20%.
The Dow is really trying to surge through the resistance level of 20,000. It may do it this week or there may be a 5-20% correction before breaking through that resistance level. Many stock market experts have turned bearish pointing to the longevity of this bull market, overvalued stocks, Trump’s tweeting habits and what many political pundits consider as dangerous casual comments about serious global problems such as US, Russian relations and North Korea’s threat to continue to develop nuclear weapons capable of reaching parts of the USA. Trump’s reply in a tweet, “it won’t happen”, is considered by many as proof of Trump’s lack of experience in dealing with global matters. Many investors are poised to bail out of stocks before inauguration day. Many stock market experts and some respected economists are even predicting a recession this year. Most investors will stay and weather the bumpy ride through the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency. There will be wild fluctuations but I predict there WILL NOT be a recession in 2017. Be reminded that in general, stocks will lose 30% to 60% of their value during the bear market that follows a recession. When will it happen? When should you get out of the stock market? Read my exit strategy in, “DidoSphere LIVING RICH AND LOVING IT”.
Correction before Dow 20,000?
Just like I said in my previous post, we may experience a 5-10% correction before breaking through the resistance level of Dow 20,000. It has been 2 weeks now that the Dow has been hovering around the resistance level of Dow 20,000 but has not closed above that. We may be in dangerous waters although in the long run I still feel bullish about stocks. Read my book “Living Rich and Loving It”, to find out when you should really get out of stocks and put your money into a money market fund. Merry Christmas, happy holidays and a prosperous New Year!!!
After Dow 19,500 resistance level was breach on Wednesday, Dec 7, we are looking for a new resistance level of 20,000. A serious correction of 5-10% may happen before reaching Dow 20,000. There will be profit taking and the gnomes of Wall Street are just waiting for a slight whiff of any bad news to dump some stocks and get back in after the correction. For now, those who stayed with me and did not panic and did not get out of the market before election day, let’s open some bottles of champagne this weekend, congratulate ourselves and enjoy this Trump rally. Just remember our long term outlook. If Trump’s proposal for lower taxes sails through the Republican Congress and Senate, we will have a lot of foreign earnings coming back into our economy. A lot of it will find its way into the stock market. Let us check back if/when the Dow breaks past our new resistance level of 20,000. Have a great weekend!
November 22, 2016
As of today’s closing, all the U.S. stock market major indices reached record highs. The Dow closed above the resistance level of 19,000. In the short run, the stock market will not have a “stairway to heaven” type of climb. I guarantee there will be dips at the slightest whiff of any bad news. Remember the first quarter of this year when the price of crude dipped below $35 per barrel? Moreover, there will be profit taking by the Gnomes of Wall Street.
The new resistance level we are looking for on the Dow is 19,500. There may be a 10% correction before reaching this resistance level. The climate has suddenly changed with the election of Trump. The Gnomes of Wall Street, or perhaps we should call them the shepherds leading the flock suddenly decided that a Trump presidency is good for the economy. Does anyone even remember that the Dow futures were 800 points down on election night as Trump started winning the battleground states one by one? What was that all about? Even though the market opened higher on the day after Election Day, my friend Jake got out of the market as soon as it opened at 9:30, Wednesday morning and put his entire portfolio into a money market fund. He voted for Hillary and was afraid that Trump’s victory would precipitate a global equity sell-off because he believed that Trump is an unpredictable, unstable and unqualified leader who’s the laughing stock of the whole world. Even after the Dow gained 1,000 points, my friend Jake is still out of the stock market. He told me last night he “cannot believe why the market keeps going up”. Don’t mix investing with politics, folks. Happy thanksgiving!!
It has only been over a week since the voters elected Trump and housing starts are up, unemployment claims have been the lowest since the great recession, retail sales look strong, corporate profits are up, the Dow gained more than 5% since the election. Happy days are here again? We’ll see. The uncertainty of the US elections kept the stock market stagnant for almost a year. So this is a post-election bump that still has legs. Trump’s pro-business policies of curtailing government regulations, lowering corporate, capital gains and foreign earnings taxes are meeting with great enthusiasm from the gnomes of Wall Street. Look for a correction around Dow 19,500. The correction could be 5-10%. Follow this blog so we may discuss the possibilities.
Wednesday morning after Election 2016, the 1,000 point drop in the Dow that many so-called experts predicted as they were watching Trump beat Clinton one battle ground state after another did not happen after all. In fact stocks are not only in the positive territory at noontime eastern standard time but had healthy gains of 1-1.5%. Still Myles Udland, a financial writer for Yahoo Finance says, “…don’t mistake Wednesday’s rally for an “all clear” sign from markets. The unknowns around any new presidency are considerable, and perhaps no recent administration presents more question marks for investors than a Trump White House”. Adam Parker, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday that, “We are more bearish today than we were yesterday because of increased uncertainty.”
Frankly, I am tired of listening to these geniuses and shame to investors who blindly listen to them. These are the same type of geniuses who led investors on the wrong path in 2008. After investors lost 50% of their savings during the bear market that followed the great recession, these geniuses told them to get out of stocks.
Go ahead, listen to Udland and Parker. Get out of the stock market now and you’ll be sorry. I say this because Trump’s fiscal policy is pro-growth. Low taxes, less government regulations, repatriation of foreign profits, possible repeal of Obamacare, infrastructure investments, etc. Of course I am concerned about a few uncertainties such as Trump’s promise to replace Janet Yellen whom I think is doing a great job and protectionism but I don’t think Trump would act recklessly with regard to these two concerns. He has VP Pence and other technocrats to hold his hands. So when will the stock market crash? We will exchange thoughts and ideas. Follow this blog and learn.
Wow the Dow recovered 400 points in 2 days. The gloom sayers are wrong again. Who got out of the market 2 days ago when the Dow went below 18,000? Remember, the market goes up and the market goes down but in the long run the market will keep going up in a free market economy like ours. Many know-it-all commentators tonight are predicting an up market if Hillary wins and a down market if Trump wins. What do they know? Here is what I’ve heard finance gurus on TV say: Trump may fire Yellen and may start a trade war that is why the market may drop quickly at the hint of a Trump victory. Price of gold may also rise quickly according to them. On the other hand, according to them, a Hillary victory will stabilize the market and cause less volatility because Hillary’s administration is a continuation of the Obama administration’s policies which has brought sluggish growth, stable dollar and stocks will keep going higher. These finance gurus know as much as you and me.