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BOTTOM OF STOCK MARKET CORRECTION NEAR ITS END

October 29, 1018 – The bottom of this 10% to 15% stock market correction is near its end.   The bulls will start running again soon.  You folks who made a lot of money by following my timing strategy in my Amazon e-book, “SIMPLEST PATH TO WEALTH”, prepare to continue making more money until at least towards the end of 2019.  Timing the approximate dates of stock market corrections is never an exact science.  In the financial news lately, many wall street experts,  economists and financial analysts have been mouthing off since the Dow plunged more than 800 points.  They claim to use Algorithm and charts to predict the support and resistance levels of the market.  Many of them modify their charts to fit their predictions.  If the technical analysis of a 90-day moving average does not fit, why not change it to 100, 120, 150 or 200?  When they find a chart that hits a support level they previously predicted, they would go on Prime Time and say, “see I predicted the market low again”.  Let’s not play with your money.  Let us exit the stock market only after studying the charts in “SIMPLEST PATH TO WEALTH”.  Then buy back your depreciated stocks.  Hit the bullseye twice.

Feb 5, 2018 – 10% Stock Market Correction is Here

In a period of expansion, a 10% stock market correction every 12 months and a 20% correction every 12 to 18 months is normal, historically speaking.  We have seen the Dow drop over 1000 points since last week and maybe the major indices will continue to drop to a support level of close to 20% devaluation since the most recent high.  Don’t panic.  Don’t take all your money out of stocks after they have lost 20%.  Someone will make money on your losses.  “The Gnomes of Wall Street” are just waiting on the sidelines.  As soon as they determine they can make enough profit on their money, they will bring that money in from foreign accounts especially now that corporate taxes have come down from a high of 39% to 21%.  There are corporate billions of dollars in Europe and Asia looking for a home…and that home without a doubt is Wall Street.  Now that the stock prices have fallen, watch how fast they will recover again and soar to new highs.  There is really no fundamental economic reason for this sudden drop in stock prices other than they increased so quickly that a slight correction is inevitable.  Even if the Feds increase interest rates by 100 basis points next year, that will not be enough to cause a recession.  Other aspects of the economy are still fundamentally sound.  Read my book kindle ebook, DidoSphere’s The Simplest Path to Wealth available on Amazon Kindle to learn how to time the market so you may get out of stocks before the bear market that follows a recession.

Desiderata Poem Meaning And Analysis by DidoSphere

Desiderata Poem Meaning And Analysis by DidoSphere

I

It is OK to do your own thing. Listen to other people’s opinions and ideas but judge and reason for yourself.

II

Stay away from all people that emit negative energy. Stand on your own personal achievements. There is no need to strive towards a goal in trying to match other people’s success.

III

Concentrate on your own career. It is a possession that no one can steal away from you. But be cautious that you do not fall victim to frauds and scams throughout your life.  But remember that in general most people around you are good, honest and kind and willing to lend a hand.

IV

Be truthful to your emotions. Do not fake your emotions when it comes to giving love and receiving love.  For no matter how many times you lose in love, love is everlasting it will forever grow in your lifetime.

V

Forgive yourself for past mistakes. Learn from the past and let go of the past.  Let go of “what might have been”, “what could have been”.  Hopefully, you have grown older and wiser.

VI

The author of this poem and I agree that we exist but we do not know why. We only know that we have a right to exist and though we can control our own existence, our behavior and attitude, we have very little control of what goes on around us and in the universe.

VII

Let God take control of your destiny. You can always try to do the right thing but you may not always be rewarded with the right outcome.  Be at peace with your mind, body and spirit and calmly and joyfully accept your destiny.

VIII

We live in this majestic wonderland. Out of all the known planets in this particular universe, how did it happen that we just happened to exist in this marvelous world surrounded by wastelands that are the neighboring planets around our solar system?  Is there another fantastic livable location, another world as grand as ours in a galaxy somewhere within our universe or in another universe somewhere out of the billions of universes out there?  Maybe.  But right now, this is the only world we know, so take care of it and…be happy, healthy, simple, well-balanced and rich! https://www.amazon.com/Living-Rich-Loving-healthy-balanced-ebook/dp/B01GORIB4Y/ref=pd_sim_351_2?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=BC9G5CA4BNBESVJWPFTG

 

 

 

DidoSphere’s Simplest Path to Wealth – Investing – TIME YIELD the 2 main ingredients in an Investment Recipe

didosphere investing time & yield the two main ingredients in an investment recipe

If only…I could have been on my yacht today fishing in the Bahamas

 

‘DidoSphere’s Simplest Path Wealth’ – Time Yield – At age 30, most of us know very little about money.  Even those who graduated with a finance or accounting degree will encounter difficulties in putting the theories they learned in college into practice when they get to the real world.  If I knew then what I know now, I could have retired at 55 and could have been spending my days on my yacht fishing in the Bahamas and drinking fine wine in the evenings.  The problem when we are young is that we are too skeptical to listen to good advice due to many years of indoctrination.  We have been listening too long to quips such as, “If something sounds too good to be true, it probably is”.

The decade of the eighties was a period when I tuned out to music-radio and tuned in to talk-radio.  I took in a lot of talk radio, close to 12 hours a day.  I know very little about 80s music but I learned a lot about politics, sports, sex and money from radio personalities who flaunted their knowledge in their respective areas of expertise. I kept a small radio next to my early version PC (personal computer) and listened all day long, non-stop to various talk show programs, switching back and forth to NYC stations, WABC, WNBC, WOR and WMCA while laboriously tinkering with budgets, forecasts and analyses on Lotus 123.  I slept with the radio on much to my wife’s chagrin, albeit I was using headphones. I listened to political discussions, travel, sex, sports, real estate and finance.  Most of the programs were “call in” shows meaning listeners called in to voice their opinions, challenge the host or ask for advice.  Although I was amused with Dr. Joy Browne’s sex advice and Bob Grant’s ultra-conservative antics, the ones I enjoyed the most and found most useful were the financial advice shows of Bruce Williams, Bob Brinker and Bernard Meltzer.  Come to think of it, I never called into any of those shows, but many of the callers’ problems mirrored my own, so I implemented many of the solutions the hosts propounded.  I learned a lot from those shows but one of my biggest regrets in life is not listening to Bruce Williams’ advice.

Bruce Williams’ Advice

 

On one of his shows in the early eighties, right after his usual, “Welcome my friends, welcome to my world” intro, Bruce Williams went right into the news of the day.  I can remember as if it were yesterday, he said, “In today’s financial news, you can now buy a non-callable 30 year T-bond (30 year treasury bond) with a guaranteed interest rate of 14.5%.  Imagine my friends, if you invest your $50,000 today you will have $2.5 million in 30 years.  You don’t have to invest in anything else.  You don’t have to buy gold, real estate or do anything fancy.” I did not follow the advice, not because I did not have the cash (in fact my wife and I had close to $100,000 in the bank by then) but because, 1) 30 years is such a long time and retirement at that age was the furthest thing from my mind, 2) the advice simply sounded too good to be true.  It sounded so incredible in its simplicity, it cannot possibly work, so I thought.  There must be a catch somewhere.  So I cast it off as satire or hyperbole from a talk show host always on the look-out for ratings.  How wrong I was!!!  Imagine my friends, had I followed this sound advice from a talk show host, with little risk, my $100,000 would have grown to $5 million in 30 years.  I could have retired in my fifties, in pursuit of Marlin on my own 40-foot fishing boat off Cabo San Lucas.  Instead, I squandered a big chunk of my money pursuing riskier, more exotic investments (See Chapter, “Isn’t There a Better Investment Strategy?).   Today you will find me still tinkering with budgets, forecasts and analyses, albeit on excel which is faster than Lotus 123, so I have a little extra time to write books that I hope will someday become best sellers.   Read more:  DidoSphere’s THE SIMPLEST PATH TO WEALTH, an Amazon Kindle Book.   https://www.amazon.com/Simplest-Path-Wealth-Turn-Million-ebook/dp/B01KPQB0OS/ref=sr_1_6?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1509563427&sr=1-6&keywords=didosphere

 

ALTUCHER’S I HATE BUYING HOUSES – REAL ESTATE

Real Estate – In his article “Five Things You NEED to Know before Buying a House”, James Altucher declares, “I hate buying houses. I don’t “hate” many things. But I’ve lost millions of dollars buying houses. The stress is unbearable when you need to sell. And you have no money when you need it. It’s a prison. The white picket fence is the prison bars. The bank is the guards looking in. And the need to protect your family keeps you in a solitary confinement of guilt and anxiety and stress.”

Who can lose millions of dollars in real estate?  The truth is James is really telling the truth.  He really had a string of bad luck that most people will never experience.  No one can lose millions of dollars in real estate without really trying.  Especially not if the subject real estate is your principal residence.  James Altucher indeed lost at least $2 million in real estate. He was unlucky enough to buy at the wrong place at the wrong time.  He was a victim of a “perfect storm” of circumstances.  Real Estate burnt him that is why he hates real estate and won’t go near it anymore. As the story goes, Mr. Altucher bought a $1.8 million condo in the Tribeca section of Manhattan which is in the downtown area not far from Chinatown.  Then he put in at least $1 million in renovations. Shortly thereafter, the 9/11 attacks happened. He ended up selling his condo for $1 million.  So I guess he was not exaggerating after all.  Contrast his luck with that of a distant relative of mine who is in the advertising industry and claims NOT to know anything about real estate.  Let’s call her Jane.  She bought a pre-construction 2-bedroom condo at the Orion building near the Port Authority bus terminal in NYC.  Jane went into contract in 2006 for a pre-construction sale price of $900,000.  When the unit was ready for occupancy in late 2007, its value had already increased to $1.2 million. Moreover, the building had a long waiting list of buyers. For some reason not disclosed to me, 3 years later, Jane went into contract to buy another 2 bedroom unit at the just completed Rushmore building on Riverside Blvd in the upper West Side.  The pre-construction price of her unit was $1 million.  To make a long story short, she sold her Orion unit for $1.7 million and bought the Rushmore unit for $1 million. How is that for buying low and selling high to make a hefty profit?  And here’s the kicker. She got a 3% 15-year fixed mortgage loan and her 2 bedroom condo which is now worth at least $2 million. Call it fortuitous timing or the luck of the Irish, but certainly, NYC real estate treated Jane much better than it did James.

I admit I’ve lost thousands (not millions) of dollars in rental properties which is why I will NOT recommend them, but rarely can you go wrong in buying your own house.  Do the math and make sure to consider all the different factors and you will see that typically, owning your home is cheaper than renting a similar dwelling.  With regard to Altucher’s calling a house a prison, an apartment is also a prison only smaller. The landlord is the warden looking in.  You can be thrown out of jail within months if you do something the warden does not like.  On the other hand, maybe you can stay for 3 years in your house even if you stop paying the mortgage. It takes a long time for banks to go through the foreclosure and eviction process.  There are many delaying tactics you can employ to delay foreclosure and eviction.  Even after foreclosure the bank may have a hard time throwing you out on the street. Learn more, click on the link below:

https://www.amazon.com/Six-Million-Dollar-Retiree-retirement-ebook/dp/B073XTL47J/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8

CANELO vs. GGG – Who’ll Be Left Standing?

CANELO vs. GGG – Who’ll Be Left Standing?
September 6, 2017,
By DidoSphere
I have read the many opinions of knowledgeable boxing aficionados on this very important match. The consensus of most experts is that the key to victory is whomever can take the other’s punch better will win the fight. My personal opinion is that the key to victory is defense not power. Power is always a factor but let’s face it, any person who is just standing still can be knocked out with one properly placed punch by even a mediocre puncher. I think Taylor Swift can knock me out with one properly positioned punch if I just stand still and close my eyes.

CANELO vs. GGG – Who’ll Be Left Standing?

September 6, 2017,

By DidoSphere

I have read the many opinions of knowledgeable boxing aficionados on this very important match. The consensus of most experts is that the key to victory is whomever can take the other’s punch better will win the fight.  My personal opinion is that the key to victory is defense not power.  Power is always a factor but let’s face it, any person who is just standing still can be knocked out with one properly placed punch by even a mediocre puncher.  I think Taylor Swift can knock me out with one properly positioned punch if I just stand still and close my eyes.  Good boxers are very good at blocking, deflecting and avoiding punches.  Both boxers are good at this but I give the edge to Canelo in this epic match up.  I think Canelo is on the way up whilst GGG is on the way down.  I predict Canelo will score bigger, cleaner punches that should weaken and tire GGG until he is ready for picking towards the later rounds. I am confident in my prediction because Canelo is younger and I think stronger and faster. Canelo’s defense is deceptive. He really does not get hit much.  Oh sure, the master MoneyMay hit him a lot but that is the hit and run and clinch strategy which I don’t think GGG will do.  Canelo blocks and deflects punches and is always in a position to counter punch.  He sets traps then drops the bombs as you may recall the devastating KOs of Amir Khan, Kirkland and Liam Smith.  If I compare the combatants’ last few matches, Jacobs, Kell Brook and Willie Monroe hit GGG a lot.  On the other hand, Canelo practically toyed with Kirkland, Cotto, Khan, Liam Smith and Chavez, Jr.  I do not see GGG winning this one unless he turns into a hit and run safety first boxer like MoneyMay and Erislandy Lara (who ran for 12 rounds) which I don’t think he will do.  So it should be a Hagler/Hearns all over again with Canelo playing Hagler.  Prediction:  Canelo by TKO end of round 11.

 

July 20, 2017, BUY YOUR PRINCIPAL RESIDENCE NOW!

July 20, 2017, BUY YOUR PRINCIPAL RESIDENCE NOW before it’s too late.  Home values will be going up soon and interest rates have been at historical lows.  Download this book from Amazon, “THE SIX MILLION DOLLAR RETIREE” for more information:

https://www.amazon.com/Six-Million-Dollar-Retiree-retirement-ebook/dp/B073XTL47J/ref=sr_1_4?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1500564096&sr=1-4&keywords=didosphere

Brian Lund, freelance writer wrote this article on July 19, 2014, “The Worst Investment You Can Make: Buying a Home”.  http://www.dailyfinance.com/2014/07/19/the-worst-investment-you-can-make-buying-a-home/ .

In his article, Lund claims that you will end up saving $3 million if you rented a comparable house instead of owning one for $350,000. That is, if you invested the savings you will realize by renting instead of owning a comparable house. Lund adds, “Of course there are numerous tweaks you can make to this scenario -– for example, factoring in your home’s price appreciation or the tax benefits -– but no matter how you slice it, owning a home doesn’t come anywhere close to making financial sense.”

I can cite a few problems with his article:

  1. He uses a 30 year fixed rate at 4.5% interest. Today you can get a much lower rate for a 15 year fixed.
  2. He assumes that the rent for a comparable dwelling is 75% of the monthly principal and interest payment and has no provision for rent increases over a period of 30 years. This is ridiculous.
  3. He does not factor in the loss of interest mortgage deduction and real estate tax deduction that will generally put the homeowner into a lower tax bracket. Conversely, he does not consider the fact that there is capital gains tax on the interest the renter’s savings earns, so it can put the renter in a higher tax bracket increasing his marginal tax rates, perhaps from 15% to 25% to 28% to 33%.
  4. He assumes zero appreciation for your home. There is no way to predict if housing is going up or down but assuming zero appreciation over 30 years is unrealistic. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) existing homes appreciated 5.4% annually from 1968 to 2009 on the average. The nationwide average annual increase of existing homes from 1987 to 2009 according to the Case-Schiller Index was 3.4%. Also, at the time of writing, there is a $250,000 ($500,000 couple) capital gains exclusion on the profit realized on the sale of a principal residence. See IRS Publication 523, https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc701.html
  5. Check on the above mentioned IRS website to see if you qualify for the exclusion. On the other hand, long term capital gains are currently taxed at a rate of 15%, see IRS Publication 551, https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc409.html
  6. He neglects to consider that after 15 years when your house is paid off, you pretty much live rent free. Yes, you will still pay for real estate taxes, upkeep and higher insurance and utilities than a renter pays but the house is yours. Real estate taxes will continue to reduce your taxable income even after mortgage payments end if you itemize.
  7. Finally, he fails to consider that many people will not save the savings they will realize by being a renter. They will find a way to spend it.

In his article “Five Things You NEED to Know before Buying a House”, James Altucher declares, “I hate buying houses. I don’t “hate” many things. But I’ve lost millions of dollars buying houses. The stress is unbearable when you need to sell. And you have no money when you need it. It’s a prison. The white picket fence is the prison bars. The bank is the guards looking in. And the need to protect your family keeps you in a solitary confinement of guilt and anxiety and stress.”  Wow James you’re a real loser!  Who can lose millions of dollars in real estate?  The truth is James is really telling the truth.  He really had a string of bad luck that most people will never experience.  No one can lose millions of dollars in real estate without really trying.  Especially not if the subject real estate is your principal residence.  James Altucher indeed lost at least $2 million in real estate. He was unlucky enough to buy at the wrong place at the wrong time.  Real Estate burnt him that is why he hates real estate and won’t go near it anymore. As the story goes, Mr. Altucher bought a $1.8 million condo in the Tribeca section of Manhattan which is in the downtown area not far from Chinatown.  Then he put in $1 million in renovations. Shortly thereafter, the 9/11 attacks happened. He ended up selling his condo for $1 million.  So I guess he was not exaggerating after all.  Contrast his luck with that of a distant relative of mine who is in the advertising industry and claims NOT to know anything about real estate.  Let’s call her Jane.  She bought a pre-construction 2-bedroom condo at the Orion building near the Port Authority bus terminal in NYC.  Jane went into contract in 2006 for a pre-construction sale price of $900,000.  When the unit was ready for occupancy in late 2007, its value had already increased to $1.2 million. Moreover, the building had a long waiting list of buyers. For some reason not disclosed to me, 3 years later, Jane went into contract to buy another 2 bedroom unit at the just completed Rushmore building on Riverside Blvd in the upper West Side.  The pre-construction price of her unit was $1 million.  To make a long story short, she sold her Orion unit for $1.7 million and bought the Rushmore unit for $1 million. How is that for buying low and selling high to make a hefty profit?  And here’s the kicker. She got a 3% 15-year fixed mortgage loan and her 2 bedroom condo which is now worth at least $2 million. Call it fortuitous timing or the luck of the Irish, but certainly, real estate treated Jane much better than it did James.

I admit I’ve lost thousands (not millions) of dollars in rental properties which is why I will NOT recommend them, but rarely can you go wrong in owning your home.  Do the math and make sure to consider all the different factors and you will see that typically, owning your home is cheaper than renting a similar dwelling.  With regard to Altucher’s calling a house a prison, an apartment is also a prison only smaller. The landlord is the warden looking in.  You can be thrown out of jail within months if you do something the warden does not like.  On the other hand, maybe you can stay for 3 years in your house even if you stop paying the mortgage. It takes a long time for banks to go through the foreclosure and eviction process and on top of that there are many delaying tactics you can employ to delay foreclosure and eviction. Even after foreclosure the bank may have a hard time throwing you out on the street.

America, a paper tiger?

July 6, 2017 –  Is America a paper tiger?  After this weekend’s launch of what the world thinks was an ICBM by North Korea, many political pundits continue to debate what the USA can do in the face of these bold threats from Kim Jong Un.  Many of these political commentators have advocated assassination of the leader of this rogue nation.  This is a ridiculous “non-solution”.  What will replace the young leader if he were to disappear on the face of the earth could be even worse.  The fact is that a nuclear weapon is a game changer.  A nation with nuclear weapons becomes almost untouchable.  One country that threatens a world power will be in imminent danger of being wiped out, but not if they possess a nuclear weapon.

Other solutions that politicians have put forward are, giving nuclear weapons to Japan and South Korea and twisting China’s arm to reign in the rogue nation.  The idea of giving nuclear bombs to Japan and South Korea was first advocated by ultra conservative talk show host Mark Levin.  This will not deter North Korea from threatening the USA and its democratic neighbors.  Don’t expect much help from China either.  They do not want a democratic nation on their southern border.  They prefer a buffer zone between them and a prosperous democratic nation such as South Korea.  Nikki Haley, our UN envoy just said today that the U.S. is prepared to use force against N. Korea if necessary.  But what?  What can America do?  I hope Gen. Mattis knows a way of disabling hundreds of missiles pointed at Seoul which is only 35 miles from the DMZ.  Even if we succeed in doing this, and even if we take out their nuclear program in the process, our success would be short lived since it would be the start of something really bad with China and Russia.  If this comes true, in the aftermath, maybe we can bribe China by letting them have all the contested islands in the South China Sea.  How about Russia?  Well, let’s give Putin and his family a lifetime supply of Grey Goose and just for himself, give him free access to the Mustang Ranch.

June 16, 2017 – Do you notice the Yield Curve narrowing?

Do you notice the Yield Curve narrowing?

Hi Folks,

As I’ve explained in my book, “Dow to Drop 80% Soon?” one of the best predictors of a recession is a negative yield curve.  The yield curve is inverted when long term yields are lower than short term yields. The yield curve inverted just prior to every U.S. recession in the past 50 years.

https://www.amazon.com/Dow-drop-80-soon-Protect-ebook/dp/B01KPQB0OS/ref=sr_1_3?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1497621601&sr=1-3&keywords=didosphere

As of June 15, 2017, the yields between the 10-year and 30-year treasuries have been narrowing, i.e. 10-year is now 2.16% and 30-year is now only 2.78%.   See the government website below:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

When the yield becomes negative or inverted, market sentiment suggests that the long-term outlook is poor and the yields offered by long-term fixed income will continue to fall. It also spells trouble for the financial sector as what started happening in late 2006.  The incentive for depositors to leave their money with the bank for longer periods of time, say 5 to 10 years is to earn a higher interest rate. If the interest rate of return is the same or less for 5 years compared to 1 year, this incentive is gone.   This means that profit margins fall for companies that borrow cash at short-term rates and lend at long-term rates, such as hedge funds, banks and mortgage companies.  Equity lines of credit and adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) which are periodically adjusted usually go up since they are based on short-term interest rates.   Debtors who got stuck with these loans will need more money to pay for additional interest.  They will need to tighten their belts since they will have less money to spend on consumer goods that is why recessions follow an inverted yield curve.

Although we are at record high territories in the stock market, with the Dow trying to breach the new resistance level of 21,700, we live in dangerous times.  I see the Dow can quickly lose 3,000 in just a period of 10 to 20 days.  The reason for this stock market high is the pro-business stance of this administration even though not very much has come to fruition yet, i.e. the talk about curtailing burdensome regulations, lowering corporate, capital gains and repatriation taxes and increasing the defense and infrastructure budgets.  Investors are optimistic that Trump’s government technocrats will continue to develop policies that will increase our GDP which should keep recession farther away in the horizon.

 

 

Correction territory

May 17, 2017 –  We are in correction territory!  As I have written on my March 24, 2017 blog, stocks are poised to lose 10% to 30% in this correction mode.  It may take a while but a dysfunctional White House and the strange behavior of Pres. Trump will hasten the correction.  Here is the pattern I see:  The Dow may lose 300 pts. today, may gain 200 pts. tomorrow, may lose 300 pts. the day after, gain 200 pts. after that and so on.  The Dow may not drop by 2,000 points in one day but it’s coming.  As you have seen the behavior of the market, after the Dow initially breached resistance level of 21,000 it did not get back up there for a long period of time. Perhaps only briefly on certain days.  What should we do?  We have to watch the market carefully. The economy, business and Wall Street are so intricately related that cause and effect are oftentimes hard to define. When investors pull their money out of stocks, where will the money go?  When will investors go back to stocks?  Will the current gloom and doom news in politics and world events affect consumer spending?  The last question is really the most important one because an interruption in consumer spending = recession.  And guess what folks?  Stocks may drop 60% during the bear market that follows a recession.  There is no big problem if you stay in stocks and bonds during periods of corrections since the market should recover relatively quickly.  But it will be a total misery for you if you lose 60% of your retirement savings.  The stock market will crash, but when?   Read the eBook, DOW TO DROP 80% SOON?

https://www.amazon.com/Dow-drop-80-soon-investment-ebook/dp/B01KPQB0OS/ref=sr_1_7?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1495038329&sr=1-7&keywords=didosphere

You will find out when to get out of equities before the next recession and when to get back into stocks before the start of the bull market that follows a recession.