Blog

ALTUCHER’S I HATE BUYING HOUSES – REAL ESTATE

Real Estate – In his article “Five Things You NEED to Know before Buying a House”, James Altucher declares, “I hate buying houses. I don’t “hate” many things. But I’ve lost millions of dollars buying houses. The stress is unbearable when you need to sell. And you have no money when you need it. It’s a prison. The white picket fence is the prison bars. The bank is the guards looking in. And the need to protect your family keeps you in a solitary confinement of guilt and anxiety and stress.”

Who can lose millions of dollars in real estate?  The truth is James is really telling the truth.  He really had a string of bad luck that most people will never experience.  No one can lose millions of dollars in real estate without really trying.  Especially not if the subject real estate is your principal residence.  James Altucher indeed lost at least $2 million in real estate. He was unlucky enough to buy at the wrong place at the wrong time.  He was a victim of a “perfect storm” of circumstances.  Real Estate burnt him that is why he hates real estate and won’t go near it anymore. As the story goes, Mr. Altucher bought a $1.8 million condo in the Tribeca section of Manhattan which is in the downtown area not far from Chinatown.  Then he put in at least $1 million in renovations. Shortly thereafter, the 9/11 attacks happened. He ended up selling his condo for $1 million.  So I guess he was not exaggerating after all.  Contrast his luck with that of a distant relative of mine who is in the advertising industry and claims NOT to know anything about real estate.  Let’s call her Jane.  She bought a pre-construction 2-bedroom condo at the Orion building near the Port Authority bus terminal in NYC.  Jane went into contract in 2006 for a pre-construction sale price of $900,000.  When the unit was ready for occupancy in late 2007, its value had already increased to $1.2 million. Moreover, the building had a long waiting list of buyers. For some reason not disclosed to me, 3 years later, Jane went into contract to buy another 2 bedroom unit at the just completed Rushmore building on Riverside Blvd in the upper West Side.  The pre-construction price of her unit was $1 million.  To make a long story short, she sold her Orion unit for $1.7 million and bought the Rushmore unit for $1 million. How is that for buying low and selling high to make a hefty profit?  And here’s the kicker. She got a 3% 15-year fixed mortgage loan and her 2 bedroom condo which is now worth at least $2 million. Call it fortuitous timing or the luck of the Irish, but certainly, NYC real estate treated Jane much better than it did James.

I admit I’ve lost thousands (not millions) of dollars in rental properties which is why I will NOT recommend them, but rarely can you go wrong in buying your own house.  Do the math and make sure to consider all the different factors and you will see that typically, owning your home is cheaper than renting a similar dwelling.  With regard to Altucher’s calling a house a prison, an apartment is also a prison only smaller. The landlord is the warden looking in.  You can be thrown out of jail within months if you do something the warden does not like.  On the other hand, maybe you can stay for 3 years in your house even if you stop paying the mortgage. It takes a long time for banks to go through the foreclosure and eviction process.  There are many delaying tactics you can employ to delay foreclosure and eviction.  Even after foreclosure the bank may have a hard time throwing you out on the street.

CANELO vs. GGG – Who’ll Be Left Standing?

CANELO vs. GGG – Who’ll Be Left Standing?
September 6, 2017,
By DidoSphere
I have read the many opinions of knowledgeable boxing aficionados on this very important match. The consensus of most experts is that the key to victory is whomever can take the other’s punch better will win the fight. My personal opinion is that the key to victory is defense not power. Power is always a factor but let’s face it, any person who is just standing still can be knocked out with one properly placed punch by even a mediocre puncher. I think Taylor Swift can knock me out with one properly positioned punch if I just stand still and close my eyes.

CANELO vs. GGG – Who’ll Be Left Standing?

September 6, 2017,

By DidoSphere

I have read the many opinions of knowledgeable boxing aficionados on this very important match. The consensus of most experts is that the key to victory is whomever can take the other’s punch better will win the fight.  My personal opinion is that the key to victory is defense not power.  Power is always a factor but let’s face it, any person who is just standing still can be knocked out with one properly placed punch by even a mediocre puncher.  I think Taylor Swift can knock me out with one properly positioned punch if I just stand still and close my eyes.  Good boxers are very good at blocking, deflecting and avoiding punches.  Both boxers are good at this but I give the edge to Canelo in this epic match up.  I think Canelo is on the way up whilst GGG is on the way down.  I predict Canelo will score bigger, cleaner punches that should weaken and tire GGG until he is ready for picking towards the later rounds. I am confident in my prediction because Canelo is younger and I think stronger and faster. Canelo’s defense is deceptive. He really does not get hit much.  Oh sure, the master MoneyMay hit him a lot but that is the hit and run and clinch strategy which I don’t think GGG will do.  Canelo blocks and deflects punches and is always in a position to counter punch.  He sets traps then drops the bombs as you may recall the devastating KOs of Amir Khan, Kirkland and Liam Smith.  If I compare the combatants’ last few matches, Jacobs, Kell Brook and Willie Monroe hit GGG a lot.  On the other hand, Canelo practically toyed with Kirkland, Cotto, Khan, Liam Smith and Chavez, Jr.  I do not see GGG winning this one unless he turns into a hit and run safety first boxer like MoneyMay and Erislandy Lara (who ran for 12 rounds) which I don’t think he will do.  So it should be a Hagler/Hearns all over again with Canelo playing Hagler.  Prediction:  Canelo by TKO end of round 11.

 

July 20, 2017, BUY YOUR PRINCIPAL RESIDENCE NOW!

July 20, 2017, BUY YOUR PRINCIPAL RESIDENCE NOW before it’s too late.  Home values will be going up soon and interest rates have been at historical lows.  Download this book from Amazon, “THE SIX MILLION DOLLAR RETIREE” for more information:

https://www.amazon.com/Six-Million-Dollar-Retiree-retirement-ebook/dp/B073XTL47J/ref=sr_1_4?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1500564096&sr=1-4&keywords=didosphere

Brian Lund, freelance writer wrote this article on July 19, 2014, “The Worst Investment You Can Make: Buying a Home”.  http://www.dailyfinance.com/2014/07/19/the-worst-investment-you-can-make-buying-a-home/ .

In his article, Lund claims that you will end up saving $3 million if you rented a comparable house instead of owning one for $350,000. That is, if you invested the savings you will realize by renting instead of owning a comparable house. Lund adds, “Of course there are numerous tweaks you can make to this scenario -– for example, factoring in your home’s price appreciation or the tax benefits -– but no matter how you slice it, owning a home doesn’t come anywhere close to making financial sense.”

I can cite a few problems with his article:

  1. He uses a 30 year fixed rate at 4.5% interest. Today you can get a much lower rate for a 15 year fixed.
  2. He assumes that the rent for a comparable dwelling is 75% of the monthly principal and interest payment and has no provision for rent increases over a period of 30 years. This is ridiculous.
  3. He does not factor in the loss of interest mortgage deduction and real estate tax deduction that will generally put the homeowner into a lower tax bracket. Conversely, he does not consider the fact that there is capital gains tax on the interest the renter’s savings earns, so it can put the renter in a higher tax bracket increasing his marginal tax rates, perhaps from 15% to 25% to 28% to 33%.
  4. He assumes zero appreciation for your home. There is no way to predict if housing is going up or down but assuming zero appreciation over 30 years is unrealistic. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) existing homes appreciated 5.4% annually from 1968 to 2009 on the average. The nationwide average annual increase of existing homes from 1987 to 2009 according to the Case-Schiller Index was 3.4%. Also, at the time of writing, there is a $250,000 ($500,000 couple) capital gains exclusion on the profit realized on the sale of a principal residence. See IRS Publication 523, https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc701.html
  5. Check on the above mentioned IRS website to see if you qualify for the exclusion. On the other hand, long term capital gains are currently taxed at a rate of 15%, see IRS Publication 551, https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc409.html
  6. He neglects to consider that after 15 years when your house is paid off, you pretty much live rent free. Yes, you will still pay for real estate taxes, upkeep and higher insurance and utilities than a renter pays but the house is yours. Real estate taxes will continue to reduce your taxable income even after mortgage payments end if you itemize.
  7. Finally, he fails to consider that many people will not save the savings they will realize by being a renter. They will find a way to spend it.

In his article “Five Things You NEED to Know before Buying a House”, James Altucher declares, “I hate buying houses. I don’t “hate” many things. But I’ve lost millions of dollars buying houses. The stress is unbearable when you need to sell. And you have no money when you need it. It’s a prison. The white picket fence is the prison bars. The bank is the guards looking in. And the need to protect your family keeps you in a solitary confinement of guilt and anxiety and stress.”  Wow James you’re a real loser!  Who can lose millions of dollars in real estate?  The truth is James is really telling the truth.  He really had a string of bad luck that most people will never experience.  No one can lose millions of dollars in real estate without really trying.  Especially not if the subject real estate is your principal residence.  James Altucher indeed lost at least $2 million in real estate. He was unlucky enough to buy at the wrong place at the wrong time.  Real Estate burnt him that is why he hates real estate and won’t go near it anymore. As the story goes, Mr. Altucher bought a $1.8 million condo in the Tribeca section of Manhattan which is in the downtown area not far from Chinatown.  Then he put in $1 million in renovations. Shortly thereafter, the 9/11 attacks happened. He ended up selling his condo for $1 million.  So I guess he was not exaggerating after all.  Contrast his luck with that of a distant relative of mine who is in the advertising industry and claims NOT to know anything about real estate.  Let’s call her Jane.  She bought a pre-construction 2-bedroom condo at the Orion building near the Port Authority bus terminal in NYC.  Jane went into contract in 2006 for a pre-construction sale price of $900,000.  When the unit was ready for occupancy in late 2007, its value had already increased to $1.2 million. Moreover, the building had a long waiting list of buyers. For some reason not disclosed to me, 3 years later, Jane went into contract to buy another 2 bedroom unit at the just completed Rushmore building on Riverside Blvd in the upper West Side.  The pre-construction price of her unit was $1 million.  To make a long story short, she sold her Orion unit for $1.7 million and bought the Rushmore unit for $1 million. How is that for buying low and selling high to make a hefty profit?  And here’s the kicker. She got a 3% 15-year fixed mortgage loan and her 2 bedroom condo which is now worth at least $2 million. Call it fortuitous timing or the luck of the Irish, but certainly, real estate treated Jane much better than it did James.

I admit I’ve lost thousands (not millions) of dollars in rental properties which is why I will NOT recommend them, but rarely can you go wrong in owning your home.  Do the math and make sure to consider all the different factors and you will see that typically, owning your home is cheaper than renting a similar dwelling.  With regard to Altucher’s calling a house a prison, an apartment is also a prison only smaller. The landlord is the warden looking in.  You can be thrown out of jail within months if you do something the warden does not like.  On the other hand, maybe you can stay for 3 years in your house even if you stop paying the mortgage. It takes a long time for banks to go through the foreclosure and eviction process and on top of that there are many delaying tactics you can employ to delay foreclosure and eviction. Even after foreclosure the bank may have a hard time throwing you out on the street.

America, a paper tiger?

July 6, 2017 –  Is America a paper tiger?  After this weekend’s launch of what the world thinks was an ICBM by North Korea, many political pundits continue to debate what the USA can do in the face of these bold threats from Kim Jong Un.  Many of these political commentators have advocated assassination of the leader of this rogue nation.  This is a ridiculous “non-solution”.  What will replace the young leader if he were to disappear on the face of the earth could be even worse.  The fact is that a nuclear weapon is a game changer.  A nation with nuclear weapons becomes almost untouchable.  One country that threatens a world power will be in imminent danger of being wiped out, but not if they possess a nuclear weapon.

Other solutions that politicians have put forward are, giving nuclear weapons to Japan and South Korea and twisting China’s arm to reign in the rogue nation.  The idea of giving nuclear bombs to Japan and South Korea was first advocated by ultra conservative talk show host Mark Levin.  This will not deter North Korea from threatening the USA and its democratic neighbors.  Don’t expect much help from China either.  They do not want a democratic nation on their southern border.  They prefer a buffer zone between them and a prosperous democratic nation such as South Korea.  Nikki Haley, our UN envoy just said today that the U.S. is prepared to use force against N. Korea if necessary.  But what?  What can America do?  I hope Gen. Mattis knows a way of disabling hundreds of missiles pointed at Seoul which is only 35 miles from the DMZ.  Even if we succeed in doing this, and even if we take out their nuclear program in the process, our success would be short lived since it would be the start of something really bad with China and Russia.  If this comes true, in the aftermath, maybe we can bribe China by letting them have all the contested islands in the South China Sea.  How about Russia?  Well, let’s give Putin and his family a lifetime supply of Grey Goose and just for himself, give him free access to the Mustang Ranch.

June 16, 2017 – Do you notice the Yield Curve narrowing?

Do you notice the Yield Curve narrowing?

Hi Folks,

As I’ve explained in my book, “Dow to Drop 80% Soon?” one of the best predictors of a recession is a negative yield curve.  The yield curve is inverted when long term yields are lower than short term yields. The yield curve inverted just prior to every U.S. recession in the past 50 years.

https://www.amazon.com/Dow-drop-80-soon-Protect-ebook/dp/B01KPQB0OS/ref=sr_1_3?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1497621601&sr=1-3&keywords=didosphere

As of June 15, 2017, the yields between the 10-year and 30-year treasuries have been narrowing, i.e. 10-year is now 2.16% and 30-year is now only 2.78%.   See the government website below:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

When the yield becomes negative or inverted, market sentiment suggests that the long-term outlook is poor and the yields offered by long-term fixed income will continue to fall. It also spells trouble for the financial sector as what started happening in late 2006.  The incentive for depositors to leave their money with the bank for longer periods of time, say 5 to 10 years is to earn a higher interest rate. If the interest rate of return is the same or less for 5 years compared to 1 year, this incentive is gone.   This means that profit margins fall for companies that borrow cash at short-term rates and lend at long-term rates, such as hedge funds, banks and mortgage companies.  Equity lines of credit and adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) which are periodically adjusted usually go up since they are based on short-term interest rates.   Debtors who got stuck with these loans will need more money to pay for additional interest.  They will need to tighten their belts since they will have less money to spend on consumer goods that is why recessions follow an inverted yield curve.

Although we are at record high territories in the stock market, with the Dow trying to breach the new resistance level of 21,700, we live in dangerous times.  I see the Dow can quickly lose 3,000 in just a period of 10 to 20 days.  The reason for this stock market high is the pro-business stance of this administration even though not very much has come to fruition yet, i.e. the talk about curtailing burdensome regulations, lowering corporate, capital gains and repatriation taxes and increasing the defense and infrastructure budgets.  Investors are optimistic that Trump’s government technocrats will continue to develop policies that will increase our GDP which should keep recession farther away in the horizon.

 

 

Correction territory

May 17, 2017 –  We are in correction territory!  As I have written on my March 24, 2017 blog, stocks are poised to lose 10% to 30% in this correction mode.  It may take a while but a dysfunctional White House and the strange behavior of Pres. Trump will hasten the correction.  Here is the pattern I see:  The Dow may lose 300 pts. today, may gain 200 pts. tomorrow, may lose 300 pts. the day after, gain 200 pts. after that and so on.  The Dow may not drop by 2,000 points in one day but it’s coming.  As you have seen the behavior of the market, after the Dow initially breached resistance level of 21,000 it did not get back up there for a long period of time. Perhaps only briefly on certain days.  What should we do?  We have to watch the market carefully. The economy, business and Wall Street are so intricately related that cause and effect are oftentimes hard to define. When investors pull their money out of stocks, where will the money go?  When will investors go back to stocks?  Will the current gloom and doom news in politics and world events affect consumer spending?  The last question is really the most important one because an interruption in consumer spending = recession.  And guess what folks?  Stocks may drop 60% during the bear market that follows a recession.  There is no big problem if you stay in stocks and bonds during periods of corrections since the market should recover relatively quickly.  But it will be a total misery for you if you lose 60% of your retirement savings.  The stock market will crash, but when?   Read the eBook, DOW TO DROP 80% SOON?

https://www.amazon.com/Dow-drop-80-soon-investment-ebook/dp/B01KPQB0OS/ref=sr_1_7?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1495038329&sr=1-7&keywords=didosphere

You will find out when to get out of equities before the next recession and when to get back into stocks before the start of the bull market that follows a recession.

 

FELLOW WRITERS, DON’T USE BIG WORDS!

Fellow writers, don’t use big words!

May 16, 2017 – Fellow writers, don’t use big words!  As a man of the world, I have worn many hats over the years.  I have been a political pundit, fisherman, tourist guide, financial advisor, poet and an occasional writer.  But today for writing this article I am wearing my reader’s hat.

I hate it when writers use big words.  If you are what you eat, I must be plain vanilla.  And if you are what you read, I must be nursery rhymes.  For me, the simpler the better.  I do not like beating my brains out trying to find out what the writer means.  Every human being has an inborn desire to be heard through what they say and write.  Letting others know what’s on our mind is a basic human desire and it is a wonderful feeling when we are understood.  So what is the point of writing something that only you can understand?

 

“Missiles of ligneous or oterous consistency have the potential of fracturing my osceous structure, but appellations will eternally remain innocuous. “

 

What?!  It sounds good, but what the heck does it mean?  Who is the author trying to impress?  A reader is like a woman ready to be pursued, wined and dined.  I would like to be seduced by a writer through the use of seductive words and phrases in a language I can understand not in some foreign language.

 

“Judgment of any system, or a priori relationship or phenomenon exists in an irrational, or metaphysical, or at least epistemological contradiction to an abstract empirical concept such as being, or to be, or to occur in the thing itself, or of the thing itself.”

 

The words of the above quotation are English but they might as well be Greek.  I have no idea what the sentence means.  Colleagues, write in such a way as if you are painting a clear and simple picture.  Do not create an abstract painting.  Write simply, clearly and concisely so that your writings are not open for interpretation.  Write in grade level 10 or lower if you can.  The lower the level, the better writer you are.  The Wall Street Journal is written in Grade 12 level while the New York Times in Grade 10 and the New York Daily News in Grade 8.  Do not include words that are superfluous and unnecessary or you might just fog up what you are trying to say.  In fact there is a term called “Fog Index” which includes a formula to measure readability and comprehension of a certain text and to determine what formal education is needed to understand such text.

 

“From a negative light, “Politics” has the horrifying stigma associated with the vile and stealthy manipulation of others for the benefit of a selfish gain masked in fake promises.

It is because of nescience, the lack of knowledge, or the perversion thereof that we position “politics” in the realm of the taboo and elevates “values” into the pedestal of sanctity. And will values be that asymptotic horizon that lies beyond the grasp of the average?”

 

I am sure the author of the above group of sentences has something worthy to say.  But his message is lost in the fog, and at least for me I got a headache just reading the text.  To try to interpret the passages might give me agita so I gave up. The writer no doubt is well educated and I am sure he knows what he means.  But he fails to realize that readers who did not attain the same level of education he did will need a dictionary to get through the agonizing process of reading his work to the end.  Perhaps the writer wants to elevate the reader’s comprehension to his level and help his readers build a better vocabulary, but a column in a magazine is not the proper forum to do it.  Reading a piece should be an informative and entertaining experience and should not be as if the reader is going through a creative writing exam.  There are professor-type writers who are sincere in their desire to impart their knowledge.  But there are also vanity writers, charlatans and timewasters who think big words will help boost their reputation as a writer to the detriment of comprehension.  Hey, I can do that too.  I can write “a farrago of footlers” instead of “a bunch of lazy people”.  But why?  My job as a writer is to keep my reader interested and engaged.  If I cannot do that I do not deserve to write.

 

So my message to the writer who uses big words, and with all due respect:  It is not too late to change but you’re not getting any younger.  And my advice to you, again with all due respect, in the eloquent words of an anonymous college professor is:

 

“In promulgating your esoteric cogitations, or articulating your superficial sentimentalities and amicable, philosophical or psychological observations, beware of platitudinous ponderosity. Let your oral and written communications possess a clarified conciseness, a compact comprehensibleness, coalescent consistency, and a concatenated cogency. Eschew all conglomerations of flatulent garrulity, jejune babblement and asinine affectations. Let your extemporaneous descantings and unpremeditated expatiations have intelligibility and veracious vivacity, without rodomontade or thrasonical bombast. Sedulously avoid all polysyllabic profundity, pompous prolixity, setaceous vacuity, ventriloquial verbosity and vaniloquent vapidity. Shun double-entendres, prurient pscosity, and pestiferous profanity, obscurant or apparent.”

 

In other words, say or write what you mean and DON’T USE BIG WORDS!

Who’s Running the Country?

May 10, 2017 –  Who’s running the country?  After 100 days of the new Trump Administration, I am still not sure how much Trump is in control of the Executive Office.  I am more confident of the people he surrounded himself with but this latest dismissal of FBI Director James Comey who was leading a criminal investigation into whether Trump’s advisers worked with the Russians to change the outcome of the election does not sit well with me nor with many sensible political pundits.  For many of us who supported Trump, the jury is still out whether he is a genius or a madman.  After all he said, “I know how to do this” so we believed him and put our trust in him that he is not the same run of the mill politician.  Amidst a multitude of domestic and international problems, the panic selling in the stock market, a 10% to 30% correction which I expected to start happening a month ago has not yet happened.  But believe me folks, it will happen perhaps unexpectedly and sooner than you think.  The market may lose 20% in just the first ten days of a downward trend that may not necessarily be a bear market but a correction.  We all know stocks are overvalued and many smart investors are just waiting for the next bad news to push the sell button.  And there are lots of bad news here and abroad.  The Taliban is taking over large portions of Afghanistan again and our country is sending thousands of additional troops to at least get the other side to the table for negotiation.  Kim Jong Un, the North Korean dictator does not seem afraid to pull the trigger and there is a real possibility that the unthinkable may happen.  The North Korean problem is more complicated than most people think.  Maybe if we get rid of Kim and somehow convinced (or bribed) NK to become more democratic, be more like SK, join the family of nations everything would be fine and dandy in the world, right?  Wrong!  China does not want that to happen.  The DMZ (Korean Demilitarized Zone) will continue to exist as long as China is in existence just like the Berlin Wall continued standing until the USSR was no more.  There is no light at the end of the tunnel with this North Korean problem.  To make matters worse, although Iran seems to be under the radar at present, the Iranian nuclear problem will start brewing again soon.  Pres. Obama made a bad deal that will come to bite us real soon after Iran has freed all its assets from our control.

5%-10% Stock Market Correction

5-10% Stock Market Correction

March 24, 2017 – Folks, the long awaited stock market correction is here at last.  We can expect a 5 to 10% decline from the Dow’s most recent high of 21,000.  As we’ve mentioned before, any bad new can trigger the correction.  It appears that the most recent not so good news that are making investors and the smart money edgy is the realization that not all Trump’s investor friendly proposals will sail smoothly through congress. TrumpCare which is supposed to be the replacement for ObamaCare was thrown out due to lack of support.  This the first indication Trump’s that investor-friendly promises such as reduction of corporate and personal taxes may not see the light of day.  The good news though, is that this consumer driven economy is still going strong.  Transportation sector is stronger than ever which is an indication that a recession is not looming in the horizon yet.  The bad news is that stock prices are really over priced that is why a correction is expected.  For the average investor like you and me, we will be better off leaving your money alone until the next recession which will surely come.  When will that happen, download my eBook, DOW to drop 80% Soon?

https://www.amazon.com/Dow-drop-80-soon-investment-ebook/dp/B01KPQB0OS/ref=sr_1_5/167-3876012-9264725?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1490390009&sr=1-5&keywords=didosphere

 

 

Stock Market Correction coming soon?

Folks, even though the Dow breached the resistance level of 20,000 a couple of weeks ago, I smell a 5% to 15% stock market correction knocking on our doors.  In fact it is overdue.  The last correction happened over a year ago. It was triggered by relatively benign news, i.e. there was an oil glut and the price per barrel dropped to below $30 in January 2016. The regular Jos Schmo would ask, “Why was that bad?”

Economists and political pundits think that the reason for the record surge in stocks is due to Pres. Trump’s pro business posture, i.e. lower taxes and less regulations.  Doing away with burdensome regulations should be relatively easy to do.  The administration does not even have to issue executive orders.  The government can just stop enforcement.  Lowering taxes is harder to accomplish.  We are looking for the correction to happen around April or May.

Trump goes to war with the mainstream media but the stock market keeps going up.  Genius or mad man?  A presidency in disarray or a fine tuned machine?  The smart money is betting that Trump is a genius and the administration is a fined tuned machine.  Smart money keeps pouring into the stock market.  Should you be a contrarian and bail out now that all the major indices have reached all time high?  The answer is are you in for the long term or do you want to gamble a little bit.  If you do, get out of the market now and put all your money in a money market fund (stable fund) because I think a correction is overdue. Wait until there is a major correction of 10 to 20%, then jump back in.  Remember that if you are out of the market, you will die each day you hear the major indices reach record highs.  If you adopt this strategy, sit back have a beer and watch TV until you hear the DOW is back down to 18,500.  Then jump back in.  Good luck.  I’m not a gambler. I will stay put and ride the tide if my portfolio loses 10 to 20%.