Folks, even though the Dow breached the resistance level of 20,000 a couple of weeks ago, I smell a 5% to 15% stock market correction knocking on our doors. In fact it is overdue. The last correction happened over a year ago. It was triggered by relatively benign news, i.e. there was an oil glut and the price per barrel dropped to below $30 in January 2016. The regular Jos Schmo would ask, “Why was that bad?”
Economists and political pundits think that the reason for the record surge in stocks is due to Pres. Trump’s pro business posture, i.e. lower taxes and less regulations. Doing away with burdensome regulations should be relatively easy to do. The administration does not even have to issue executive orders. The government can just stop enforcement. Lowering taxes is harder to accomplish. We are looking for the correction to happen around April or May.
Trump goes to war with the mainstream media but the stock market keeps going up. Genius or mad man? A presidency in disarray or a fine tuned machine? The smart money is betting that Trump is a genius and the administration is a fined tuned machine. Smart money keeps pouring into the stock market. Should you be a contrarian and bail out now that all the major indices have reached all time high? The answer is are you in for the long term or do you want to gamble a little bit. If you do, get out of the market now and put all your money in a money market fund (stable fund) because I think a correction is overdue. Wait until there is a major correction of 10 to 20%, then jump back in. Remember that if you are out of the market, you will die each day you hear the major indices reach record highs. If you adopt this strategy, sit back have a beer and watch TV until you hear the DOW is back down to 18,500. Then jump back in. Good luck. I’m not a gambler. I will stay put and ride the tide if my portfolio loses 10 to 20%.